10/26学习笔记 (曼昆第四章 －money and inflation)

1.  The primary way in which the Fed controls the supply of money is through open-market operations—the purchase and sale of government bonds.


原来一直是通过买卖bonds。。
2.  A second type of asset used for transactions is demand deposits, the funds people hold in their checking accounts.


3. 

C Currency 

M1 Currency plus demand deposits, traveler’s checks, and other checkable deposits 

M2 M1 plus retail money market mutual fund balances, saving deposits (including money market deposit accounts), and small time deposits

M3 M2 plus large time deposits, repurchase agreements, Eurodollars, and institution-only money market mutual fund balances

4.  quantity equation:

the quantity of money in the economy is related to the number of dollars exchanged in transactions.

Money × Velocity = Price × Transactions

M × V = P × T

T is the number of times in a year that goods or ser- vices are exchanged for money.

P is the price of a typical transaction—the number of dollars exchanged.

velocity tells us the number of times a dollar bill changes hands in a given period of time.

Money is the total money in market

V,T应该基本是定值吧。

5. 这个公示有一个非常重要的推广:

Money × Velocity = Price × Output 

M × V = P × Y.

Y is real GDP, P is the GDP deflator, and PY is nominal GDP.  P times Y is national income

1) 当money supply增长的时候，名义GDP也会同比例增长么。所以每年8%的GDP增长。。。当然，8%也许是实际GDP。

2) 这个公示主要的目的是计算V。比如QE2 500billion出去之后，算上已经发行的M2,整个M实际上增加7%～8%，名义GDP如果保持过去几个季度的不超过3%的增长， 那么qe2推出后未来半年的通胀可能差不多会到5%。似乎并没有想像中的那么高。

参考87页的历史数据：1970～80美国的money supply增长是10%，平均的inflation是8%；

中国过去20年的M2增长似乎是20倍，GDP算每年8%的话，折算下来过去20年，平均每年有14%的通胀了。。

4. 接下来是讨论interest rate和M2的关系。

有两种interest rate: 实际利率(r)和名义利率(i)。

i = r + pi

(Fisher equation)

另外，有的时候对未来通胀的预期会改变当前的商品价格。

5.凯恩斯坚定的反对通胀，并认为通胀是政府掠夺公众财务的手段，政府支出大的国家总是倾向于滥发货币刺激通胀。但是曼昆似乎倾向于适度通胀：通胀变相的降低了员工工资，避免了企业通过裁员来减少成本。当然通胀显然不可能增加就业机会。

还有个笑话很有意思：According to one report, when patrons entered a pub during the German hyperinflation, they would often buy two pitchers of beer.Although the second pitcher would lose value by getting warm over time, it would lose value less rapidly than the money left sitting in the pa- tron’s wallet.

6.  Hyperinflation一般是指每天的通胀接近1%，每年接近100倍。

7.  有一个网站详细讲了美国09年之后的通胀：http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/fivemajorinvestmentthemesmain/